Hope everyone enjoyed their Easter weekend! Because of the holiday, we might get some slow markets to start the week, but there is nothing newswise beyond that to really get in the way this week. Hopefully we have some nice, active markets. The fundamental picture is changing a little. We have seen gold push higher and I assume this has to do with N. Korea as well as Trump sending the dollar down for now by saying “US currency is too strong”. Funny coming from a guy who only months ago was steadfast in wanting to label China a currency manipulator when in fact China has been trying to prop up their currency. Go figure. Anyway, if there is war or even a major deployment of troops, gold will feel the shock the fastest and climb higher. IF, somehow; we get a resolution from China over N. Korea, then gold will probably sink. Keep an eye on all the markets to understand what the influence might be for the day/week.
As stated above, we really don’t have any news to worry about right now. This week brings a few pieces here and there, but nothing beyond Easter has me concerned.
OUTLOOK BY INSTRUMENT:
GOLD: With the breakout last week above 1283 it is pretty clear that gold is bullish for now, BUT without clearing 1300, I’m doubting how much “clear space” we have to long until that happens (if it does happen). For now though, I have no desire to short, and I am going to look for any bounce with a long signal before figuring out whether to take the trade or not. We have some nice areas, particularly 1281-1283 to find that important support before the bounce hopefully.
OIL: Back in the range. Very simple and straightforward. Long from 52, 51 or 50 with a bounce. Short from 55. Any major collapse and we will re-examine our approach then.
INDICES: Although we have seen some softness to finish the week last week, my approach remains the same. Looking for long signals on the DOW and the DAX on a day where the broad indices are moving higher, and hopefully this comes with a move down in gold, although it’s not required. I am STILL bullish only on the indices for now.
WEEKLY OUTLOOK VIDEO: