Well, yesterday’s moves were most interesting and I certainly didn’t expect to see gold jump right through the big red trendline and continue higher. Of course it was a possibility but the one I ranked least likely to happen considering how important the s/r is. Considering this, I looked at the dollar and it was down, but still was it enough to cause the move? The indices flagged a little early, but recovered and the FTSE never even went into bearish territory. So although I personally believe the move in gold was both dollar-based as well as risk-based. Where we go from here is anyone’s guess but I am certainly weary of the long in gold at the moment. Not until we confirm above 1300 that is.
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On the news front, it’s an interesting mix. If you trade the Cad, it’s a big day. We have some Gbp news rather early in the day and then we are left with a gap until Trump speaks. Why he would choose such a time to speak is beyond me but it’s Trump. This is the “wildcard” news item of the day/week/possibly our lives. So, I can’t put a measure of caution to it. Use your best judgement. In the US session we have crude oil inventories.
OUTLOOK BY INSTRUMENT:
GOLD: It is clear we made a rather strong bullish move, but I’m not sure how it will hold. I would use caution. I am going to look for longs assuming we get a pullback to say 1270 or 1265-63 and a bounce from there with a signal. Otherwise, I’m still waiting for shorts under 1248.
OIL: We have broken and are holding 53.13. No change in strategy here. Looking for longs hopefully from the MTF or 52.50 or 52.00 with a long signal to target 55.
INDICES: Still waiting for a good day with good movement to grab a long on one of the indices.
LONDON OUTLOOK VIDEO: